What is El Niño and why could it mean record temperatures?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that El Niño conditions will likely strengthen throughout 2026, potentially becoming one of the strongest ever recorded. This, combined with decades of human-caused warming, could make 2027 the hottest year on record, leading to significant disruption in weather patterns, food supplies, and global economies. El Niño develops when typical east-to-west winds in the Pacific weaken or reverse, allowing warmer water to spread across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Scientists observed sea surface temperatures more than 0.5C above average and a drop in pressure over the central Pacific to confirm the new phase. An especially strong El Niño is anticipated due to unusually warm deep-sea waters, with a 63% chance of it becoming 'very strong,' ranking among the largest historical events. The phenomenon, first observed by Peruvian fishermen in the 1600s, exacerbates droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves. It can fuel hot, dry weather in parts of South America, Southeast Asia, and Australia, while increasing rainfall and flooding risks in the southern US. Economically, droughts could impact crops and reduce food supplies, leading to higher prices. Fishing communities in South America face smaller catches as nutrient-rich water diminishes. Comparisons are drawn to the 2015-16 El Niño, which caused widespread food shortages. While El Niño events have strengthened since 1950, there is no clear evidence that climate change has directly affected their frequency or intensity, though some models suggest future increases.